Part of the reason we are doing this trip NOW, for THIS election, is that it’s the closest and most exciting primary race in decades. Precedents and predictions are crumbling like a giant political stock cube. Received wisdom is being returned to sender, unopened.

The only certainty that existed during this autumn’s phoney war was Hillary Clinton had the Democrat race sewn up: everyone felt that her experience in the Senate (and the White House), and her connections, and money, would be just too much for Barack Obama and John Edwards. Even that certainty has fallen now. For both parties, the first two elections, in Iowa on 3 January, and New Hampshire on 8 January, could be decisive.

Here are the front-runners in Iowa, with latest polling numbers from here:

Clinton 31%
Obama 27%
Edwards 22%
(the field)

Huckabee 28%
Romney 27%
McCain 14%
(the field, including national Republican poll-leader Rudy Giuliani!)

For Republicans and Democrats, an ideal world would see them with a clear favourite candidate from the outset, for whom primary elections were a mere administrative formality. This candidate would be experienced, youthful, strong, warm, have clear-cut views on abortion and gun control that manage to alienate no-one, have the public support of both Oprah and Chuck Norris, as well as being a decorated Vietnam war hero. The primary process would then just be one long, glorious, party-unifying coronation of this unlikely super-candidate.

But even with this election’s ludicrously intense primary calendar – front-loaded to the point that it almost topples over on itself – the race might remain so tight that both parties will still be choosing their candidate after 5 February’s 24-state voting jamboree, Super Tuesday.

Keep the crown on ice, and don’t make any bets on a winner yet.